[rules-users] Planning Under Uncertainty

[Chris Spencer]

Thanks! I'll definitely take at a look at those links.

Chris

On Sat, Sep 24, 2011 at 3:02 AM, Geoffrey De Smet
<ge0ffrey.spam at gmail.com> wrote:
> drools-planner + drools-chance = planning under uncertainty
>
> I am looking forward to the first alpha release of drools-chance,
> so I can experiment with "planning under uncertainty" examples,
> such as "investment portfolio optimization" etc.
>
> If you want to do it today, you got 2 options as I see it:
> 1) Use drools-chance in your score DRL (and contribute to and fix
> drools-chance)
>   https://github.com/droolsjbpm/drools-chance
> 2) Write the uncertainty calculations yourself in your score DRL
>
> Both ways require you to fully understand the math behind "uncertainty
> calculations",
> which in your case are "probability calculations" I think.
> Here's just the beginning of the begin (Bayes' Rule etc):
>   http://www.khanacademy.org/video/probability--part-6
>   http://www.khanacademy.org/video/probability--part-7
>   http://www.khanacademy.org/video/probability--part-8
>
>  From a drools-planner perspective, there is no uncertainty:
> The score DRL's need to produce a Score for a solution which is
> comparable the Score of another solution of the same problem.
> Even if the Score instance contains probability parts (which is
> allowed), Planner doesn't care:
> you still need to define which of the 2 Score instances is better (by
> compareTo), something which is domain specific
> (and might even depend on input data like how much risk you're willing
> to take).
>
> --
> With kind regards,
> Geoffrey De Smet